Utah - 4.5 (-110)
These 2 kicked off last season in similar fashion, a top-20 Utah team going to Gainesville to take on the unranked Gators. This time, the Gators do the traveling and the matchup will be without 4th overall pick Anthony Richardson & Utah's Cam Rising (yet to be cleared from ACL injury). With that said I don't think starting QB's Bryson Barnes or Graham Mertz are going to be the ones stealing the show.
I'm looking for both teams to pound the rock. Florida returns a solid duo in the backfield in Trevor Etienne & Montrell Johnson Jr but the Utes are no slouches in the run game themselves averaging 5.3 yds/carry last season deploying a 3-headed monster of 500+ yard rushers. 2 of which return this year.
Utah also did a better job of defending the run than Florida last year:
Utah
Opp yds/carry: 4.1(58th ranked)
Opp yds/game: 116.8 (19th ranked)*
Florida
Opp yds/carry: 4.7 (98th ranked)
Opp yds/game: 178.4 (95th ranked)
While I favor Utah's defense, their edge offensively on 3rd down should not be overlooked either, converting at a 10% higher clip than the Gators:
Utah
50.59% 3rd down conversion rate (7th ranked)*
Florida
40.12% 3rd down conversion rate (47th ranked)
Lastly, Utah was one of the more smart & disciplined teams averaging 4.2 penalties/game (9th ranked) while Florida was not near as good in that department ranking outside the top 100 with 7 penalaties/game.
Give me the back-up and the home team, you can take the four and a half.
Go Utes!
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