Over 54.5 (-110)
UCF plays its first game as a member of the Big12 as they host Kent St. This total has tumbled down to 54.5 since opening up @ 58.5. The public is heavy on the under in this one with about 75% of the handle ($) and about 65% of the bets (tickets) which is not something I hate to see if I’m leaning the other way.
While we are not quite sure what to expect from Kent St & 1st year coach Kenni Burns, I have to think they are going run the rock. Burns did plenty of it @ Minnesota and the Flashes are no strangers either, averaging 4.4 yds/carry (ranked 53rd) & 189.1 yds/game last season (ranked 31st). That is also where the hole in UCF’s defense lied, giving up an ugly 4.8 yds/carry (ranked 106th) & 167.7 yds/game (ranked 84th). Kent St ran the ball 42.6 times/game last year (ranked 15th most), now think about that 4.8/carry!!!
While I think that’s how Kent St could do their part, I believe Gus Malzahn & the Knights are going to run it up on them to cover the 55+. The Flashes leaky defense gave up 444.6 yds/game (ranked 112th) & 30.7 pts/game (ranked 94th) while UCF racked up 31.1/game (ranked 38th) and 459.2 yds/game (ranked 18th)!
A couple of other points that I think might favor the over are in regards to 3rd Down Conversion & ball control:
3rd Down efficiency
Both teams ranked inside the top 60 in conversion %
UCF | 45.36% (ranked 24th)
Kent St | 39.29% (ranked 53rd)
Both teams ranked outside the top 75 in opp conversion %
UCF | 40.45% (ranked 82nd)
Kent St | 40.24% (ranked 80th)
Ball Control
While UCF did average 1.5 turnovers/game (ranked 70th) last year, their defense didn't do a good job forcing them coming away with 1.2 forced/game (ranked 90th).
Kent St did a better job taking care of the ball with 1.2 turnovers/game (ranked 39th) and like UCF their defense was also unable to force turnovers also only averaging 1.2 forced/game (ranked 94th).
Despite both teams troubles scoring in the redzone, I think the ball keeps moving downfield and enough points get put up.
Go Offense !!!
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