Rutgers - 4.5 (-110)
We've got a nice little Big10 matchup in Piscataway to start the day and I like the home team in this one. Rutgers has been a cash cow so far this season going 5-0-1 ATS (4-0 as home favorites) while Michigan St has failed to cover the last 3 weeks as underdogs.
Sparty's offense has just been terrible so far this season and I don't see things improving today against a tough Rutgers defense:
Michigan St Pts/play Rutgers OPP Pts/play
.221 (ranked 127th) .239 (ranked 13th)
Michigan St is throwing the ball 57.54% of the time and as you can see they are not doing it well:
Completion % - 52.87 (ranked 114th)
Yds/pass - 6.1 (ranked 113th)
Interception % - 4.46 (ranked 119th)
While Rutgers defense has excelled against the pass:
OPP Completion % - 55.23 (ranked 19th)
OPP Yds/pass - 5.6 (ranked 9th)
OPP Pass yds/game - 193.6 (ranked 23rd)
Rutgers also ranks top-20 in OPP Pts/game, OPP Yds/game & Redzone Defense:
OPP Pts/game - 17 (ranked 16th)
OPP Yds/game - 318 (ranked 17th)
OPP Redzone TD % - 60% (ranked 5th) 🔥
Aside from their poor offense, Michigan St is one of the most un-disciplined teams in FBS averaging 8.8 penalties/game (ranked 129th) for 78.3 yds/game (ranked 126th). Rutgers averages 4 penalties/game (ranked 10th)!
If that wasn't enough, Scarlet Knights are sporting a +.8 turnover margin (ranked 16th) against the Spartans -1.3 (ranked 127th). If Rutgers can continue their dominance on the defensive end they should be able to easily cover this by a touchdown.
Go Rutgers!
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