Under 46.5 (-110)
The Tigers & Midshipmen will play the 2nd leg of a home & home Thursday night in Memphis in a matchup of run heavy offenses, which leads me to this play on the under.
Both offenses are top 30 in Rushing % to start the year:
Memphis - 56.94 (ranked 39th)
Navy - 84.21 (ranked 2nd)
Navy's rush defense has been leaky so far this year giving up 6.0 yds/carry (ranked 120th) but Memphis' front has been great holding opponents to 2.1 yds/carry (ranked 12th). I am looking for Memphis to speed up the game by defending the run that Navy refuses to get away from so well.
Another stat I like in relation to the under is these 2 teams inability to convert on 3rd down, both ranking outside of the top 100 in conversion %:
Memphis - 31.25% (ranked 100th) 3D Conversion %
Navy - 28.57% (ranked 110th) 3D Conversion %
I would also like to note Memphis' defense as only allowed opposition to convert on 3rd down 21.43% of the time. That's good for 8th best so far this year.
Both teams also sit outside the top 75 in FG % so far both at 50%, something that can easily swing a close total one way or the other.
I think the Tigers have a few good edges in this one and I am also laying the 13.5 (-110) as well to go with the under. *GOOD TIME TO REMIND I DO NOT BELIEVE IN PARLAYS*
Go Defense!
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