NC State – 8.5 (-110) & Under 48
The Virginia football teams woes have continued this season going 0-3, including their home opener which they allowed James Madison to come back & score 12 unanswered pts in the 4th qtr for the win. Something is going to turn around tonight in Charlottesville but it’s not going to be the Cavaliers, instead the Wolfpacks inability to cover (currently 0-3 ATS).
If you remove the Notre Dame game were NC State was forced to abandon the run game early, the Wolfpack taking care of business on the ground running 62.75% of time for 5.2 yards/carry. Virginia on the other hand currently has one of the least effective run defenses in FBS giving up 4.9 yds/carry (ranked 105th) & 191 yds/game (ranked 12th) to opponents.
The Wolfpack also have a significant advantage on 3rd Downs-
3D Conversion %
NC State: 47.06% (ranked 29th)
Virginia: 36.36% (ranked 88th)
OPP 3D Conversion %
NC State: 34.62% (ranked 40th)
Virginia: 45% (ranked 93rd)
I’m looking for NC State to win the battle in the trenches and run to at least a 2 score victory.
Also on the under 48 assuming this will be a run heavy game that should keep the clock rolling. Here are a couple nuggets I like for the under as well:
Both teams rank outside the top 60 RedZone Scoring %
NC State: 83.33% (ranked 63rd)
Virginia: 77.78 (ranked 76th)
Both teams have struggled with Turnovers
NC State: 1.5 Giveaways/game (ranked 75th)
Virginia: 1.7 Giveaways/game (ranked 88th)
Go Wolfpack & Defense!
Comments