Tulane/Memphis Under 54.5 (-110)
We've got Friday Night Football with 2 teams coming into the match-up 4-1 to start the season, both fighting to leapfrog SMU for 1st in the American Conference.
Oddly enough, these 2 just so happen to be 4-1 against the totals as well:
Tulane - Unders are 4-1
Memphis - Overs are 4-1
Tulane's unders are a product of their style, a slower pace that utilizes a heavy rush attack and strong defense at the line of scrimmage:
Running the ball 60.54% of the time (ranked 14th)
Offensive plays/game: 65.3 (ranked 98th) while maintaining a + possesion % (51.53%)
OPP yds/play: 4.6 (ranked 17th) , OPP yds/game: 316 (ranked 18th)
OPP yds/rush: 2.6 (ranked 6th) , OPP yds/game: 89.8 (ranked 11th)
On the Memphis side, with the exception of their matchup with Bethune Cookman (non FBS) where the Tigers practically covered themselves they have been shooting it out with the opposition. That said, look at the defenses they've played in that span:
Navy: Giving up 34.5 pts/game (ranked 110th)
Missouri: Giving up 28.6 pts/game (ranked 77th)
Boise St: Giving up 33.4 pts/game (ranked 104th)
The 3rd down stats for these 2 also seem to favor the under with both ranking outside the top 75 in 3D Conversion % and inside the top 40 in OPP 3D Conversion %:
3D Conversion %
Tulane - 37.25% (ranked 76th)
Memphis - 37.29 (ranked 75th)
OPP 3D Conversion %
Tulane - 34.55 (ranked 36th)
Memphis - 29.17 (ranked 12th)
Both teams also have a poor FG % which helps keep a close one under:
Tulane - 71.43% (ranked 75th)
Memphis - 60% (ranked 101st)
These 2 also play a smart game and limit penalty yds to the opposition, both in the top 25 in Penalty yds/game:
Tulane - 38 yds/game (ranked 24th)
Memphis - 36.3 yds/game (ranked 15th)
I think the total is inflated a bit due to Memphis' recent shoot-outs and last years high-scoring affair, I like this one to stay under 55.
Go Defense!
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